Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
