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A mere eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the reason for the team's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, however, the sideline response was far more favourable. After the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

It remains a particularly tough query to resolve. History, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.

According to Opta, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear strangely fragile – yet right now the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more versus United.

Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more shots and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is another reality in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
• The winger could transform into the force he resembled in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.